DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A NEARLY ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE
LARGE SCALE REGIME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO EXIST BY MID WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN /LARGELY VIA AN
EASTERN STATES TROUGH/ PER 00Z GEFS/DETERMINISTIC GFS...WHEREAS THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS MORE ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS...LIMITED POTENTIAL AND PREDICTABILITY...GIVEN THE
INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME...PRECLUDE
CONSIDERATION OF ANY SEVERE RISK AREAS.

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WY...NWRN/N-CNTRL
CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...FOUR
CORNERS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT NEWD...REACHING THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE EVENING.  AT THE
SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.

...PORTIONS OF WY...NWRN/N-CNTRL CO...
A BELT OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS /65 TO 75 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY NOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP
SHIFT RICHER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH A
CORRIDOR OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FROM NWRN CO
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN WY. THIS MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT PEAK HEATING...WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 60 MPH PROBABLE. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING...RH VALUES
SHOULD ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 12 TO 20 PERCENT/.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.

ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE...A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
WLYS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. LATEST NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 MPH WLYS IN THE LOWEST
1000-3000 FT AGL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY INTENSE WIND GUSTS
INVOF ONGOING FIRES. THE NAM REMAINS STRONGEST OF OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IN TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG WLYS WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE FARTHER N IN
SERN WY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH BREEDS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPORAL EXTENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN N-CNTRL CO.

...PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS OVER THE ERN
GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
LARGELY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. AS SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION...RH
VALUES SHOULD BECOME LOW /AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT/...PRIMARILY
ACROSS NERN AZ. FARTHER N/E...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO AREAS OF MODERATE
RAIN ON WED SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS MOST OF ERN
UT/WRN CO/NWRN NM.

...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...NERN VA...D.C....
NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WED /PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S/. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES...IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
/NEAR 15 MPH/ AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 09/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB
PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT
E/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE NRN PLAINS.
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NWD AND OCCLUDE ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...FAR SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...
MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FRI
ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IN SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO EWD INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE. LOCALLY GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/FRI
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THE 06Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH
OPERATIONAL MODEL IN TEMPORAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LATE DAY 1. HOWEVER...IT DOES DEPICT AT LEAST FAIR RH RECOVERY
OCCURRING FRI MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF ONGOING
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE LOW. AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES...A
DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL POTENTIALLY SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS...CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS SERN WY INTO NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
NRN CO...WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW
/FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/. FARTHER S IN N-CNTRL CO...SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE AROUND 15 MPH WITH RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT.

...E-CNTRL NM...
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WLYS /AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MTNS FRI MORNING. AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES...MIXING OF THIS MODERATELY STRONG FLOW TO THE
SURFACE WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN
8 AND 15 PERCENT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED TO LOCALIZED
CRITICAL THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 09/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...